From all of us at ArcadianAI: we hope you and your team have a safe, calm holiday season.

Now the uncomfortable truth:

The holidays don’t just “increase crime.” They scramble routines — and that changes when crime happens. If you only tighten security “after-hours,” you’re protecting the wrong hours for a big chunk of real-world risk.

The timing trap: “Crime = night” is a lazy assumption

1) Burglary timing flips depending on what you’re protecting

The FBI’s national burglary breakdown uses Day = 6am–6pm and Night = 6pm–6am. (Federal Bureau of Investigation)

In the U.S. (2019):

• Residential burglary (dwelling):
  Day: 354,398 vs Night: 238,635 (Unknown: 109,415) (Federal Bureau of Investigation)
  → Homes get hit a lot in the day.

• Non-residential burglary (store/office/etc.):
  Night: 191,663 vs Day: 152,956 (Unknown: 70,629) (Federal Bureau of Investigation)
  → Businesses skew more night.

Holiday implication: When people travel, shop, and change schedules, the “easy hours” shift. Empty home mid-day + distracted evenings = opportunity.

2) Robbery and assault lean later — but not always “midnight”

BJS (NCVS tables) shows nighttime dominance for more weapon-involved incidents. Example (1999 table):

• Armed robbery: 70.4% nighttime

• Unarmed robbery: 39.9% nighttime

• Armed assault: 52.4% nighttime

• Unarmed assault: 38.9% nighttime (Bureau of Justice Statistics)

Holiday implication: Crowds, retail hours, parties, and late-day foot traffic increase the “evening risk window,” not just 2am.

3) Youth vs adult violence spikes at totally different hours

OJJDP’s national pattern is blunt:

• Youth violent crime: 37% occurs between noon and 5pm

• Adult violent crime: 30% occurs between 6pm and 11pm (ojjdp.gov)

Holiday implication: If you run schools/community sites, retail near transit, malls, or multi-residential common areas, the after-school/afternoon window matters even in winter.

“But it’s the holidays — what crimes actually surge?”

The holidays amplify opportunity crimes:

Package theft is a modern holiday sport (sadly)

A U.S. Postal Service OIG report estimates at least 58 million packages stolen in 2024, with up to $16B in reported losses. (Office of Inspector General)

And yes, multi-residential properties get hammered (lobbies, mailrooms, hallways) — because the thief doesn’t need to “break in.” They just need a blind spot and 15 seconds.

Retail theft pressure rises when shopping volume peaks

NRF expects U.S. holiday sales to surpass $1 trillion for the first time in 2025. (National Retail Federation)
More volume = more chaos = more opportunity.

NRF also reports retailers saw an 18% increase in average shoplifting incidents in 2024 vs 2023, and threats/acts of violence during shoplifting/theft events rose 17%. (National Retail Federation)

Translation: the “small theft” problem increasingly becomes a safety problem.

The ArcadianAI warning (and why we’re saying this now)

If your holiday security plan is basically:

“We’ll watch after-hours harder.”

…you’re walking into the exact trap the data highlights:

• Residential burglary often happens in the day (Federal Bureau of Investigation)

• Youth violence clusters afternoon (ojjdp.gov)

• Packages disappear whenever deliveries happen (daylight included) (Office of Inspector General)

• Retail risk extends into high-traffic evening hours (National Retail Federation)

Security isn’t “a night shift problem.” It’s a timing + context problem.

A practical holiday safety playbook (homes, multi-residential, retail)

Homeowners & employees (simple, high-leverage)

• Kill the “visible target”: don’t leave boxes/gifts visible through windows (yes, people notice).

• Make delivery theft hard: use pickup lockers / signature options / workplace delivery when possible.

• Don’t broadcast absence: avoid real-time travel posts; post later.

• Lights + consistency: timers beat “random manual lights.”

Multi-residential / property managers (highest ROI actions)

• Treat mailrooms like cash drawers: they need the same seriousness as retail stockrooms.

• Reduce tailgating: signage + door hardware + resident education.

• Aim cameras at decision points (entrances, elevator lobbies, mailroom door) not just “wide shots.”

• Operational response matters: if nobody reviews footage or responds, cameras are theater.

Retail operators (what actually changes outcomes)

• Shift attention to the “edges”: entrances, high-value aisles, self-checkout, returns desk.

• Build for surges: your worst day is not average — it’s the Saturday before Christmas.

• Prioritize staff safety: NRF’s violence trend is a warning, not a footnote. (National Retail Federation)

Where ArcadianAI fits (without the hype)

ArcadianAI exists for one reason:

Make video monitoring workable under real-world constraints — noise, fatigue, staffing limits, and seasonal spikes.

Ranger is designed to:

• Filter motion chaos into verified, usable alarms

• Reduce operator overload

• Support after-hours and daytime risk windows (because the data says both matter)

If you’re running a SOC, guard company, RVM operation, or managing multi-site properties: this is the season where false alarms and missed real events become painfully expensive.

Closing: a real holiday message

We genuinely hope nothing happens to you, your people, or your property.

But hoping isn’t a security strategy.

So here’s our ask: audit your “crime happens at night” assumption before it audits you.